As the Iowa Caucuses kick off I figured it was time to caucus myself. Plus, I caucus myself every Thursday anyways...if you know what I mean? If a healthy internal debate about world affairs is what you think I mean than you are correct. If not, you are a sick bastard.

Hey-Fey:
The first thing I should say is that I encouraged Hilary to run. I'm pretty sure she never thought of it before her memorable meeting with a bright-eyed young man in a receiving line in 1998.
Me: So, maybe it's time for you to run for President?
Hey-Fey: Oh, Madeline (to Madeline Albright standing next to her), this young man thinks I should be President
Albright and Hey-Fey: (adorable chuckling)
Albright: How cute. (I kid you not; she said that)
Hey-Fey: Well, it's a nice thought.
Me: Just remember me when you run.

If you're wondering, she didn't remember me. A fact I learned with a Secret Service Agent's knee in my back. She lost my vote.

Hilary is a serial triangulator and has some early Gore awkwardness on camera -- a fact that is even more clear when she is next to Bill. I did find her quite charming in person. She is a DLC woman who makes every decision as a political calculation. Her lack of leadership, and sometimes leadership in the completely wrong direction is unforgivable. From day one, she behaved like a woman who oh so badly wanted to be President, and didn't want to make a single move to screw that up. Just like Kerry and Gore during the election. For Bill, it was about winning for Hil it's about NOT LOSING. This is what killed the Dems in the past two Presidential elections.

I don't buy into any of the worry about how much the red-staters hate her. They despise all candidates who don't hate gays and adore a fetus. I am freaked out by the potential Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton 20+ years dynasty.

Prediction: She doesn't have my vote, but may likely win as the elderly and female vote in Iowa turns out for her.

B-Bam:
Now this guy knows his stage bursting. He is an amazing speaker, and possibly an even better writer. Plus, he has The Oprah in his corner, who suddenly sounds like a black southern woman when she campaigns for him in South Carolina. Northerner Oprah meet Southern Oprah -- weird! Obama speaks like the voice of change, but acts like a Beltway insider courting the likes of Vernon Jordan. He is inspiring like JFK and may be just as politically savvy. While this is a far cry from the world of W., it's not the earth-shattering change that "One America" promises. Especially not while he is turning tale and running out the door on dicey, yet patently ridiculous votes like the MoveOn censure. Grow a pair! Like Hilary...sort of. At the end of the day, we do live in two Americas. The wing-nuts take an Ahminijad (they don't exist) position on gays in the military, want Creationism, and "just the tip" abstinence taught in schools while their kids shoot guns, try meth, and participate in a hole load of anal sex (no pun intended). You can't fight racism, hatred and the corporations who screw us all over by simply rising above it, while accepting their campaign contributions of course.

Prediction: Obama readily carries the black vote in Iowa...the black vote in IOWA? Young people don't like the cold and they do like Grey's Anatomy repeats and a brand new Celebrity Apprentice. Obama loses, but perhaps wins the Vice Presidency. Oprah still gives caucus goers mini-vans and copies of Barack's books. He is a fucking Hemingway, seriously. Oh, and he doesn't have my vote, not after the MoveOn crap.


The Hair:
I've liked him for awhile, Iraq war vote notwithstanding. He is a bit like an insurance salesman, which I don't like. Still he is ideological. Bush-Cheney gave ideology a bad name, but the truth is I have strong convictions and they are in stark contrast too much of America. I want someone who fights for those beliefs, finally. Not someone who fights for nothing hoping to win over the unicorn "swing voters." GW Bush never went to the middle, and he was still able to steal two elections! Edwards is a great speaker, he has been taking stronger stands on the war than the other two, and his wife is fucking awesome...and she blogs! My sources tell me Edwards wanted to fight on in Ohio in '04. I still think Gore gave up too early and Kerry certainly did. The failure of this Congress has shown us that we still need to fight to win. Hell, we need to fight just to get the votes counted, let alone make any actual policy change. There are "Two Americas" and the divide is not along cultural lines, but economic. That message can prevail in the West and parts of the South.

Prediction: Edwards has been campaigning since November 2004. He never dismantled his campaign apparatus and is well-placed in Iowa. He can and may pull off the victory and if he does the momentum can carry him forward and boost his fundraising as it did for Kerry. Hilary does have the little old ladies (did I mention a new Deal or No Deal is on ladies?), but I'm putting my money on The Hair. He has my vote.

GOP Prediction: Huckabee. I said it from day one. He has everything they want: The Bizarro-Clinton from Hope, Arkansas and Governor; doesn't like gays and wants to quarantine aids patients; a minister; wants to get rid of the Pakis; a money-grubbing asshole; went on the Jesus diet; loves those fetuses (feti?); is not Mormon.

Enjoy the show. I'm off to drink liberally.